Oil up on expectations of extended, possibly deeper, output cut-Sapforex24

Oil prices rose on Monday, bolstered by confidence that top exporters will this week agree to extend supply curbs, with suggestions the cuts could even be deepened.
Brent crude gained 48 cents o $54.09 a barrel by 1043 GMT (6:43 a.m. ET), with U.S. light crude up 47 cents at $50.80.

Both benchmarks have climbed more than 10 percent from lows earlier this month.
Prices have risen on expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers, including Russia, will extend for another six or nine months a deal to cut supplies by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd).

“The decision (to extend cuts) seems to be almost a done deal,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB Markets. “There seems to be a very high harmony in the group.”

The possibility of deepening the cuts was also being discussed ahead of a meeting of OPEC and other producers in Vienna on May 25, sources said.

             Comex Market Update-Sai Proficient

But such talk could lead to disappointment if not approved, Commerzbank (DE:CBKG) analysts said.

“If the cuts are merely to be extended, this is likely to be met at best with a neutral reception, if not even with disappointment,” Commerzbank said in a note.
Some analysts argue that deeper cuts are required to balance the market, pointing to a slight rise in OPEC exports this year.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects OPEC net oil export revenues to rise in 2017, partly because of “slightly higher” OPEC output.
Deeper cuts might, however, serve to stimulate U.S. shale production, said Schieldrop at SEB Markets.

“If you cut production, it’s no free lunch. You get something in the short term, but you get a backflip in the medium term, which is more production in 2018 and 2019,” he said.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) says that the U.S. rig count for new oil production has jumped by 404 since May last year, representing a rise of 128 percent.

U.S. oil production has already climbed by 10 percent, or almost 900,000 bpd, since mid-2016 to 9.3 million bpd.

Iraqi oil minister Jabar al-Luaibi said in a speech on Monday that OPEC’s No.2 producer had met its share of production cuts, but added that the country remains ready to meet any global demand growth that may arise.

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Forex – Dollar re-approaches 6-month lows as U.S. worries persist-SapForex24

The dollar dropped and re-approached a six-month low against other major currencies on Friday, as U.S. political turmoil continued to weigh on the greenback, overshadowing the previous session’s upbeat U.S. data.

EUR/USD gained 0.47% to 1.1155, just below Thursday’s six-month peak of 1.1173.
The greenback briefly strengthened after the release on Thursday of upbeat data on U.S. initial jobless claims and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area.

But the dollar remained under broad selling pressure following reports this week that U.S. President Donald Trump asked former FBI Director James Comey to end the agency’s investigation into ties between former White House national security adviser Michael Flynn and Russia.

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Former FBI Director Robert Mueller was appointed on Wednesday by the Justice Department as a special counsel to take over the probe into Russia’s interference in the 2016 election.

Elsewhere, GBP/USD advanced 0.59% to 1.3016, off the previous session’s eight-month high of 1.3051.

USD/JPY held steady at 111.49, while USD/CHF slid 0.23% to 0.9776.

The Australian dollar was stronger, with AUD/USD up 0.44% at 0.7451, while NZD/USD eased 0.09% to 0.6895.

Meanwhile, USD/CAD shed 0.23% to trade at 1.3572.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.39% at 97.38, moving close to Thursday’s six-month lows of 97.28.

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Oil pulls back as investors weigh U.S. drilling, extended OPEC cuts-SapForex24

Oil prices edged lower in European trading on Thursday, as the market weighed rising U.S. shale production against ongoing efforts by major producers to cut output to reduce a global glut.

The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude June contract dipped 18 cents, or around 0.4%, to $48.89 a barrel by 3:55AM ET (07:55GMT).

The U.S. benchmark gained 41 cents on Wednesday after data showed U.S. crude stockpiles fell for the sixth week in a row.

Elsewhere, Brent oil for July delivery on the ICE Futures Exchange in London declined 21 cents to $52.00 a barrel, after rising 56 cents a day earlier.

Comex Market Update-SapForex24

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said crude oil inventories fell by 1.8 million barrels in the week ended May 12, the sixth weekly decline in a row. However, the drawdown came in below expectations for a drop of 2.3 million barrels.

The EIA also reported that gasoline stockpiles declined by 400,000 barrels, while distillate stockpiles were down 1.9 million barrels last week.

Oil rallied at the start of the week on news that Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to extend oil output cuts for a further nine months until March 2018. However, the 12 remaining OPEC members and other producers participating in the cuts have to agree to the extension during a meeting on May 25.

In November last year, OPEC and other major global producers, including Russia, agreed to cut output by about 1.8 million barrels per day between January and June, but so far the move has had little impact on inventory levels.

Crude sank to a five-month low earlier this month, rattled by concern over increasing U.S. crude output that has shaken investors’ faith in the ability of OPEC to rebalance the market.

The U.S. rig count rose for the 17th week in a row to the highest level since August 2015 last week, implying that further gains in domestic production are ahead.

Elsewhere on Nymex, gasoline futures for June slipped 0.5 cents, or 0.3%, to $1.594 a gallon, while June heating oil shed 0.4 cents to $1.529 a gallon.

Natural gas futures for June delivery tacked on 1.1 cents to $3.203 per million British thermal units, as traders looked ahead to weekly storage data due later in the global day.

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Forex – Dollar hovers at 6-month lows amid U.S. political worries-SapForex24

The dollar was hovering at six-month lows against other major currencies on Wednesday, as concerns over recent political developments in the U.S. continued to dampen demand for the greenback.

EUR/USD held steady at 1.1087, just off a six-month peak of 1.1122 hit overnight.

The greenback weakened broadly following reports U.S. President Donald Trump shared sensitive intelligence with Russia’s foreign minister in a meeting last week.

The U.S. dollar came under further selling pressure after news Trump asked former FBI Director James Comey to end the agency’s investigation into ties between former White House national security adviser Michael Flynn and Russia.

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Markets were still recovering from Trump’s decision last week to fire James Comey and amid congressional calls for an independent investigation of possible Russian interference with the U.S. election.

Elsewhere, GBP/USD edged up 0.18% to 1.2939 after the U.K. Office for National Statistics said the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.6% in March, its lowest level since 1975.

However, the claimant count increased by 19,400 in April, compared to expectations for a gain of 7,500 people.

Meanwhile, the average earnings index rose by 2.4% in the three months to March, in line with expectations. Excluding bonuses, wages increased by 2.1%.

USD/JPY dropped 0.59% to 112.44, while USD/CHF slipped 0.15% to 0.9843.

The Australian dollar was weaker, with AUD/USD down 0.43% at 0.7394, while NZD/USD held steady at 0.6883.

Meanwhile, USD/CAD edged 0.08% higher to 1.3619.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.15% at 97.94, the weakest level since November 9.

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